Updated with the latest data: 23/8/2020

更新最新数据：23/8/2020

As restrictions are lifted for Laois and Offaly, difficult times are set to continue for the people of Kildare, at least for another couple of weeks, as they continue to fight to contain their recent outbreak. It is a reminder of the relentlessness of this virus and, while outbreaks can appear suddenly, they take time to contain.

随着对劳埃斯(Laois)和奥法利(Offaly)的限制解除，基尔代尔(Kildare)人民的困境将持续，至少再过几周，因为他们将继续努力遏制最近的疫情。 这使人想起了这种病毒的残酷性，尽管爆发可能突然出现，但仍需时间才能遏制。

In this article I look back over the last two weeks since these additional restrictions were first imposed on August 7, in order to:

在本文中，我回顾了自8月7日首次实施这些附加限制以来的过去两周，以便：

• Review the state of the outbreaks in Laois, Offaly and Kildare in the time period leading up to August 7.
  回顾8月7日之前的Laois，Offaly和Kildare的爆发状态。
• Compare the impact of restrictions on the case numbers in these counties, which has led to the decision to lift restrictions in Laois and Offaly but not in Kildare.
  比较限制对这些县的案件数量的影响，这导致决定取消对Laois和Offaly的限制，但取消对Kildare的限制。
• Assess the potential of additional outbreaks, which may lead to further restrictions in the future.
  评估其他爆发的可能性，这可能在将来导致进一步的限制。

A important caveat: this analysis uses the publicly available case data published by the Irish Government on a daily basis. At the time of writing this data is current up to and including August 20. This analysis considers case numbers only and I am sure that the National Public Health Emergency Team (NPHET) consider many other factors including testing numbers, test-positivity rates, type of transmission (clusters vs community) etc. making their action recommendations. As such this analysis is meant only a guide to what has happened and is not presented as a reliable prediction of the future.

重要警告：此分析每天使用爱尔兰政府公开发布的案例数据。 在撰写本文时，该数据是截至8月20日(含)的当前数据。该分析仅考虑病例数，我敢肯定，美国国家公共卫生应急小组(NPHET)考虑了许多其他因素，包括检测数，检测阳性率，类型传播(群体与社区)等方面提出行动建议。 因此，该分析仅意味着已发生的事情的指南，而不能作为对未来的可靠预测。

八月爆发 (The August Outbreaks)

The graph below shows the total weekly cases, per 100,000 of population, in every county in the Republic of Ireland, from the end of July up until the 20th of August; that is, each daily value reflects the total number of cases per 100k for the preceding 7 days.

下图显示了爱尔兰共和国每个县从7月底到8月20日每周每10万人的总病例数； 也就是说，每个每日价值反映了前7天每10万的案件总数。

Most counties are shown as the tangle of thin grey lines towards the base of the graph, indicating low weekly case numbers. The dashed line is the average for Ireland during this time; less than 20 new weekly cases per 100,000 of population for much of this period, but steadily rising throughout.

大多数县显示为朝向图表底部的细灰线缠结，表明每周病例数较低。 虚线是这段时间爱尔兰的平均值； 在此期间的大部分时间里，每10万人口中只有不到20个新的每周病例，但在整个过程中稳步上升。

Laois, Offaly and Kildare (LOK) emerged as outliers around the end of July, each with large and growing weekly case counts during the first few days of August. On August new restrictions were imposed and these had an almost immediate impact on Laois and Offaly – within a week their case counts, while still high, were in a steady decline – although the numbers in Kildare have been more stubborn to control.

Laois，Offaly和Kildare( LOK )在7月底出现异常值，在8月的前几天中，每个星期都有大量且不断增长的病例数。 8月份实行了新的限制，这些限制几乎对劳埃斯和奥法利产生了直接影响-在一周之内，尽管基尔代尔州的案件数量仍然较难控制，但案件数量虽然仍然很高，但仍在稳定下降。

县比较 (County Comparisons)

Let’s go back a few weeks and consider the state of play during the week before August 7, when NPHET were hard at work analysing the outbreaks in LOK, and deliberating on what action should be recommended. Back then, total weekly case counts were approximately 48, 84 and 102 cases per 100k of population, respectively, for Laois, Offaly and Kildare. To put this in context, the average at the time for the entire country (excluding LOK) was just 4 cases per 100k per week, and no other county had more than 14 cases per 100k per week; then Wexford was next highest with 13.3 cases per 100k per week. In other words, Laois, Offaly and Kildare were genuine outliers with case totals that were at >10x the average over all other counties and >3x the next highest single county. And LOK case totals were rising!

L等几周后再考虑8月7日之前一周的情况，当时NPHET努力分析LOK的暴发，并考虑应采取何种行动。 那时，Laois，Offaly和Kildare的每周总病例数分别约为每100k人口48、84和102例。 考虑到这一点，当时整个国家(不包括韩国)的平均值仅为每10万每周4例，而其他县的每10万每周没有超过14例。 然后是韦克斯福德(Wexford)，以每周每10万的13.3例居第二。 换句话说，Laois，Offaly和Kildare是真正的异常值，案件总数是所有其他县的平均值的10倍以上，是第二高的单个县的3倍以上。 LOK案件总数正在上升！

The bar chart below shows the total number of weekly cases per 100k of population for each county during these last two weeks. The darker bars show the totals for the last (most recent) 7 days and the lighter bars show the totals for the 7 day period before that (effectively the first week of the LOK restrictions).

下面的条形图显示了最近两个星期内每个县每10万人口的每周病例总数。 较黑的栏显示最近(最近)7天的总计，较浅的栏显示之前7天(有效期为LOK限制的第一周)的总计。

Offaly and Kildare standout in terms of their high case numbers since August 7; Offaly’s weekly cases have fallen dramatically in the last week (a 72% decline compared to the previous week), while Kildare’s increased by 11%. The weekly cases in Laois have been coming down since August 7 and fell a further 21% in the last week.

自8月7日以来，Offaly和Kildare的案件数量很高。 在过去的一周中，Offaly的每周病例明显减少(与前一周相比下降了72％)，而Kildare的每周病例则增加了11％。 自8月7日以来，劳埃斯(Laois)的每周病例下降了，上周又下降了21％。

Given that the LOK restrictions were imposed when weekly case counts were 48 per 100k or higher in these counties, then we can treat this as a type of baseline level, beyond which restrictions may be appropriate; no doubt depending on other factors too, such as community transmission levels and test positivity rates. The weekly case rates in Laois and Offaly have now fallen far below this baseline – 21 cases and 15 cases per 100k for Laois and Offaly respectively over the last 7 days – so it is not so surprising that restrictions were able to be lifted, whereas Kildare’s 97 cases per 100k remain considerably above this baseline level, hence the need for the people of Kildare to endure restrictions for a little longer.

鉴于在这些县每周病例计数为每10万或更高的案例48个时，实施了LOK限制，因此我们可以将其视为一种基线水平，超出此限制可能是合适的； 毫无疑问，这也取决于其他因素，例如社区传播水平和测试阳性率。 现在，Laois和Offaly的每周病案率已远远低于此基线–在过去7天中，Laois和Offaly的病案分别为21例和每10万的15例–因此，取消限制是不足为奇的，而Kildare每10万中有97例仍大大高于此基线水平，因此基尔代尔人需要忍受更长的时间。

It is worth noting how graph also brings attention to a number of other counties that are within reach of the type weekly case numbers that brought about restrictions in LOK. For example, Carlow’s numbers have been increasing recently — indeed it has added more cases per 100k than either of Laois or Offaly — but thankfully have begun to decline again over the course of the last day or so. Hopefully this is a sign that Carlow’s recent rise in cases has been brought under control.

值得注意的是，图表还如何引起人们的关注，这些其他县都属于每周例数类型，这对LOK造成了限制。 例如，卡洛(Carlow)的数量最近一直在增加-实际上，每十万个案例的数量比劳埃斯(Laois)或奥法利(Offaly)的数量更多-但幸运的是，在最后一天左右的时间内，数量又开始下降。 希望这表明卡洛最近的案件增加已经得到控制。

Tipperary also stands out because of a very significant increase in cases in the last week, presumably because of the cluster located in a Mushroom plant there. This brought Tipperary’s weekly case numbers to 45 cases per 100k for the week and very close to the level of Laois (48 cases per 100k) when its restrictions were imposed; presumably if Tipperary’s cases can be isolated and contained then the type of community transmission seen in LOK can be avoided and restrictions will not be needed.

蒂珀雷里(Tipperary)之所以脱颖而出，是因为上周的病例数量显着增加，大概是因为该群位于蘑菇工厂。 这使得蒂珀雷里每周的每周病例数达到每100k 45例，非常接近劳埃斯实行限制时的Laois水平(每100k 48例)。 据推测，如果蒂珀雷里的病例可以被隔离和控制，那么可以避免在LOK中看到的社区传播类型，并且不需要限制。

Dublin, Kilkenny, and Limerick have also register >100% growth in th elast week compared to the previous one, bringing their weekly cases to approximately 20 per 100k. While still far from the levels that led to additional restrictions in LOK, it may be more challenging to to arrest these rates of growth given higher population densities involved compared with LOK.

都柏林，基尔肯尼和利默里克在上周也录得100％的增长，与前一周相比增长了，使其每周每10万例案件增加了大约20个。 尽管仍远未达到对LOK施加额外限制的水平，但要阻止这些增长速度可能更具挑战性，因为涉及的人口密度高于LOK。

结论 (Conclusions)

This virus does two things really well: it spreads and it makes us sick. It doesn’t get bored, it doesn’t get lonely, it doesn’t get tired. But we do, and from time to time our resolve slips, and sometimes we make poor decisions. And that’s ok, as long as it’s not happening to all of us all of the time.

Ť他的病毒做了两件事真的很好：它传播，这让我们生病。 它不会感到无聊，不会寂寞，不会疲劳。 但是我们确实这样做，而且我们的解决方案会不时地滑落，有时我们会做出错误的决定。 没关系，只要不是我们所有人都一直都在发生。

What really matters in the fight agains the virus is how we perform as a population, and yes that has to start with individuals, and after the appalling behaviour of some over the past few days one would be forgiven for thinking what’s the point, but we simply can’t do that. We just have to work even harder to make up for the occasional failings of the few and after all isn’t that what it really means to say that we are all in this together?

在战斗中真正重要的是，该病毒是我们作为一个整体的表现，是的，这必须从个人开始，在过去几天中一些人的可怕行为之后，人们会原谅我们的想法是什么，但是我们根本做不到。 我们只是必须更加努力地弥补少数几个人的偶然失败，毕竟这不是说我们在一起的真正含义吗？

LOK was a bit of a wake-up call. It reminded me of how quickly this virus can sneak up on us again. But it also showed that we can regain control without going into full lockdown. If we can keep responding in this way, and keep our contacts low, and maintain social distancing, and practice good hand-hygiene, then hopefully we can avoid more LOKs in the future and control the virus through the challenges of the next few months as schools reopen.

LOK有点叫醒。 它使我想起了这种病毒能很快在我们身上再次潜行。 但这也表明我们无需完全锁定就可以重新获得控制权。 如果我们能够继续以这种方式做出React，保持低联系，保持社会疏远，并保持良好的手卫生，那么希望我们将来能够避免更多的大韩民国，并通过未来几个月的挑战来控制病毒。学校重新开放。