带有扭曲的天气应用 (A Weather App with a Twist)

Is My Weather Weird?™ is a weather app with a twist — it offers a simple answer to a common question we’ve all asked. To do this we look at how often weather like today’s used to happen in the past, using the best data available.

我的天气很奇怪吗？ ™是一款带有扭曲功能的气象应用程序-它为我们都提出的常见问题提供了简单的答案。 为此，我们使用可获得的最佳数据来查看过去的今天天气的频率。

Fun Fact: every day of weird weather calculations involves over 10 million data points

有趣的 事实 ：怪异的天气计算，每天涉及超过10万个数据点

定义“天气” (Define “Weather”)

This might seem obvious, but there are two important points to understand.

这看起来似乎很明显，但是有两个重要的方面需要理解。

First, weather refers to conditions right now, or on a particular day, at a given location. Examples of weather include the amount of rain in Tulsa today, or the current temperature in Seattle. This differs from climate, which is the average weather at a given location, such as the typical number of days of rain in Tulsa in May, or the average high temperature in Seattle for the second week of January.

首先， 天气是指当前或特定日期在给定位置的状况。 天气的例子包括今天塔尔萨的降雨量或西雅图的当前温度。 这与气候不同， 气候是给定位置的平均天气，例如5月份塔尔萨的典型降雨天数，或1月第二周西雅图的平均高温。

Second, Is My Weather Weird?™ (or IMWW for short) measures daily weirdness for three specific aspects of weather: high temperature, low temperature, and total precipitation. There are other weather measurements we’d love to use, such as humidity or wind speed, but a large majority of historical weather measurements tracked only those three items, so that’s what we have to work with.

其次，“我的天气怪异”™(或简称IMWW)测量天气三个特定方面的每日怪异度： 高温 ， 低温和总降水量 。 我们还希望使用其他天气测量方法，例如湿度或风速，但是大多数历史气象测量结果仅跟踪这三个项目，因此我们必须配合使用。

Weather is what’s happening outside any given moment or day; climate is average weather for a given location.

天气是任何给定时刻或白天以外发生的事情； 气候是给定位置的平均天气。

定义“ 怪异” (Define “Weird”)

Basically, weather is weird if you wouldn’t expect it to happen at a given location and time of year. A high temperature of 90 F in January would be bizarre in a place like Chicago, but not too weird for somewhere like Miami.

基本上，如果您不希望天气在一年中的给定位置和时间发生，那就很奇怪。 一月份90°F的高温在像芝加哥这样的地方是奇怪的，但是对于像迈阿密这样的地方来说并不奇怪。

IMWW uses a weirdness score that corresponds to how often a given type of weather used to happen, as described below.

IMWW使用一个怪异评分，该分数与给定类型的天气过去发生的频率相对应，如下所述。

定义“过去的样子” (Define “How things used to be”)

To say weather is weird, we need to compare it against normal. For this purpose, we use the 20th century as our definition of normal, more specifically the weather before 1990. This is a fairly common date to use for before & after comparisons of weather and climate, because this about when changing temperatures became impossible to ignore. Older folks will remember pre-1990 as the normal that they grew up with, and the timeframe is further relevant because our built world, such as homes and infrastructure, was largely designed for 20th century conditions.

要说天气很怪异，我们需要将其与正常情况进行比较。 为此，我们将20世纪作为正常的定义，更确切地说是1990年之前的天气。这是比较天气和气候之前和之后使用的相当普遍的日期，因为关于何时温度变化的这一点变得不容忽视。 老年人会记得1990年前是他们成长的常态，而且时间范围更重要，因为我们的建筑世界(例如房屋和基础设施)主要是为20世纪的条件设计的。

IMWW compares today’s weather with weather patterns from before 1990.

IMWW将今天的天气与1990年之前的天气模式进行了比较。

数据 (The Data)

历史天气 (Historical Weather)

IMWW uses historical weather records from the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) the most comprehensive database of daily weather data available, with measurements from over 100,000 weather stations in 180 countries going back as far as the 1700s.

IMWW使用来自全球历史气候学网络 (GHCN)的历史天气记录，该历史记录是可用的最全面的每日天气数据数据库，其数据可追溯到180个国家的100,000多个气象站，可追溯到1700年代。

IMWW uses daily high temperature, low temperature, and precipitation depth (rain and snow water equivalent) from approximately 6,000 of the GHCN weather stations that have particularly high-quality measurements, with an average of 47 years of pre-1990 data per station.

IMWW使用大约6,000个GHCN气象站的每日高温，低温和降水深度(相当于雨水和雪水)，这些气象站的测量质量特别高，平均每个站1990年之前的数据为47年。

今天的天气 (Today’s Weather)

IMWW current conditions and forecasts are provided by Aeris Weather, a professional-grade weather service trusted by industries including aviation, agriculture, and logistics.

IMWW的当前状态和预报由Aeris Weather提供， Aeris Weather是航空，农业和物流等行业所信赖的专业级气象服务。

IMWW uses the best data available for historic measurements and today’s weather.

IMWW使用最佳数据来进行历史测量和今天的天气。

方法 (The Method)

For more detail see the accompanying technical description (TBD).

有关更多详细信息，请参见随附的技术说明(TBD)。

1.计算每个站点的历史天气模式 (1. Calculate Historical Weather Patterns for each Station)

First we determine what weather looked like prior to 1990 for each day of the year at all of the 6,000 weather stations. We do this by lumping together all of the data, across all years, for a particular day of the year. In fact, we also lump in data from a few days before and after. This provides more data to work with for generating statistics, and it makes intuitive sense because typical weather doesn’t change much in very short timeframes. For instance, on average the weather March 15 isn’t much different than on March 16, or March 13. Seasonal changes in weather become more important on the timescale of weeks or longer.

首先，我们确定1990年之前的所有6000个气象站的每一天的天气情况。 为此，我们将一年中某一天的所有数据汇总在一起。 实际上，我们也会前后几天收集数据。 这提供了更多可用于生成统计数据的数据，并且具有直觉上的意义，因为典型的天气在很短的时间内变化不大。 例如，平均而言，3月15日的天气与3月16日或3月13日的差别不大。在几周或更长时间的时间范围内，天气的季节性变化变得更加重要。

This approach gives us around 600 days of historical measurements per day of the year, representing what the weather was like on (or near) that day in the past. Then, for each day, we analyze the distribution of measurements, which essentially means counting the number of times each weather type was a particular value — how many times the high temperature was 55, 56, 57, … 90, 91… etc — to determine what kind of weather was common and what was rare.

这种方法每年可以为我们提供约600天的历史测量值，代表过去一天(或附近)的天气情况。 然后，对于每一天，我们分析测量值的分布，这实际上意味着对每种天气类型是特定值的次数进行计数，即高温分别为55、56、57，……90、91…等的次数。确定哪种天气是常见的，什么是罕见的。

2.将今天的天气与车站的历史模式进行比较 (2. Compare Today’s Weather with Historical Patterns at Stations)

We now have a description of historic weather patterns for each day of the year at each weather station. Next we grab today’s weather for any of those station locations, compare it to the historic pattern, and determine how weird the weather is at that location. This allows us to conclude things like, “A high temperature of 73 F on April 15 only happened 5% of the time at this station prior to 1990.”

现在，我们对每个气象站一年中每一天的历史天气模式进行了描述。 接下来，我们获取这些站点中任何一个站点的今日天气，将其与历史模式进行比较，并确定该站点的天气有多怪异。 这使我们可以得出这样的结论：“ 4月15日，在1990年之前，该站仅发生了5％的时间，发生了73 F的高温。”

It’s again slightly more complex than this because we actually compare the current weather with a statistical fit to the historic data, using distribution forms that are suited for describing extreme values, i.e., the “tails” of the data.

它再次比这稍微复杂一点，因为我们实际上使用适合描述极值(即数据的“尾部”)的分布形式来比较当前天气和对历史数据的统计拟合。

3.计算所有位置的天气怪异度 (3. Calculate Weather Weirdness for All Locations)

If you lived very close to one of these 6,000 weather stations we’d basically be done. But since most of us don’t live within a few miles of these locations, there is another step to take to determine weather weirdness for all locations and not just at these particular stations

如果您住在这6000个气象站中的一个非常靠近，则基本上可以完成。 但是由于我们大多数人都不住在这些位置的几英里内，因此需要采取另一步骤来确定所有位置而不是仅在这些特定站点的天气怪异度

To do this we use a simple idea: if the weather is weird at point A, and it’s weird at point B, then it’s probably also weird in between, as long as A and B are not too far apart. To put this to practice, we first calculate weather weirdness today for each of our 6,000 weather stations. Then we use this information for every station to estimate weirdness for a nearly continuous map of the covered area, currently most of North America. We say nearly continuous because we can’t accurately calculate weirdness for places with no historic weather stations nearby, so we don’t return a result for those areas. This is also the reason we’re currently limited to North America, which has a particularly dense network of weather stations vs. other parts of the world.

为此，我们使用一个简单的想法：如果A点的天气很奇怪，而B点的天气很奇怪，那么只要A和B的距离不太远，它之间也可能很奇怪。 为了付诸实践，我们首先为我们的6,000个气象站中的每个气象站计算今天的天气怪异度。 然后，我们将这些信息用于每个站点，以估算覆盖面(目前为北美大部分地区)几乎连续的地图的怪异度。 我们说几乎是连续的，因为我们无法准确计算附近没有历史气象站的地方的怪异度，因此我们不会为这些区域返回结果。 这也是我们目前仅限于北美的原因，北美与世界其他地区相比，气象站网络特别密集。

回顾 (Recap)

Is My Weather Weird?™ is a weather app that provides a simple answer to a common question. We do this by comparing today’s weather with historic patterns, taking steps to ensure the best possible answers. We hope that this context about your daily experience of the weather is fun and thought provoking, and we’d love feedback at info@ismyweatherweird.com. Thanks!

是My Weather Weird？™是一款气象应用程序，可为常见问题提供简单的答案。 为此，我们将今天的天气与历史模式进行比较，并采取措施以确保获得最佳答案。 我们希望您每天的天气经历有趣有趣，值得思考，我们希望能通过info@ismyweatherweird.com获得反馈。 谢谢！

常问问题 (FAQ)

是否有“我的天气怪兽”应用程序可供下载或购买？ (Is there an Is My Weather Weird™ app for download or purchase?)

Not yet, but we’d like to do that soon. If you’re interested in this, or if you have ideas for features, let us know at app@ismyweatherweird.com

尚未，但我们希望尽快这样做。 如果您对此感兴趣，或者对功能有任何想法，请通过app@ismyweatherweird.com与我们联系。

这是一个开源项目吗？ (Is this an open source project?)

Not currently, but we’re open to the idea — it just takes quite a bit of effort to properly open source a project, and this is a side project for now.

目前还不行，但是我们对这个想法持开放态度-适当地开源项目只需要花费大量的精力，而现在这是一个附带项目。

这个程序是否证明气候变化是真实的？ (Does this app prove that climate change is real?)

The purpose of this app is to answer a simple question about today’s weather using the best available information. I hope you’ll find it interesting and fun, and it may also be concerning. Weird weather on any particular day is not by itself evidence of climate change, which is about long-term changes in weather. The long-term trends in our weather weirdness calculations show the same conclusions as other climate research, which is that since 1990 temperatures are increasing on average and that precipitation patterns are changing. A future version of the app will provide this climate analysis, so that you can see trends in your own hometown.

该应用程序的目的是使用最佳的可用信息来回答有关当今天气的简单问题。 希望您会发现它有趣而有趣，并且可能也有关系。 任何一天的奇怪天气本身都不是气候变化的证据，气候变化是天气的长期变化。 我们的天气怪异度计算的长期趋势与其他气候研究得出的结论相同，即自1990年以来温度平均在上升，而降水模式也在变化。 该应用程序的未来版本将提供此气候分析，以便您可以查看自己家乡的趋势。

我可以为我的应用程序或数据分析获取Weird Weather数据吗？ (Can I get Weird Weather data for my app or data analysis?)

Yes, we offer the information from the app and much more via a programmatic API that can be integrated with your own weather app or data processing. Contact us at data@ismyweatherweird.com

是的，我们通过可与您自己的气象应用程序或数据处理集成的程序化API提供来自应用程序的信息以及更多信息。 通过data@ismyweatherweird.com与我们联系

不同类型的怪异天气是什么意思？ 酷高点？ 温暖的低点？ (What do the different types of weird weather mean? Cool Highs? Warm Lows?)

IMWW uses the three types of weather measurements that are broadly available with a long history of measurements:

IMWW使用三种类型的天气测量方法，它们具有悠久的测量历史，可广泛使用：

• High Temperature: The daily high can be weirdly warm or weirdly cool. Warm highs are often more noticeable because they can make our days unbearably hot (in the summer) or perhaps pleasantly warm (in the winter). Cool highs can mean jackets when we expect to be wearing short sleeves, or bitter cold winter days when we prefer not to leave the house.

  高温 ：每天的高温可能很奇怪，也可能很奇怪。 温暖的高处通常更引人注目，因为它们会使我们的日子令人难以置信的炎热(夏季)或令人愉快的温暖(冬季)。 当我们期望穿着短袖时，凉爽的高腰可能意味着穿夹克，或者当我们不愿离开家时，寒冷的寒冷冬季意味着我们会穿上夹克。

• Low Temperature: The daily low temperature can be weirdly warm or weirdly cool. Most of the time the low temperatures happen overnight, so warm lows might feel like a surprisingly pleasant autumn night. Cool lows might mean unexpected frost in the warm season, or dangerously cold winter nights.

  低温 ：每天的低温可能会异常温暖或异常凉爽。 在大多数情况下，低温会在一夜之间发生，因此温暖的低压可能会让人感觉像是一个令人惊喜的秋天夜晚。 凉爽的低谷可能意味着在温暖的季节出乎意料的霜冻，或者在危险的寒冷冬夜里。

• Precipitation: Weirdness is determined by total daily precipitation. For rainfall this is simply the depth of rain, while for snow this refers to snow water equivalent, which is the depth of water that would be left if you melted the snow that fell that day. Interestingly there are very few places on the entire planet where it is weird to have no precipitation on a given day. Even where daily rainfall is very common, such as the tropics during the wet season, it is statistically not that weird to have the occasional dry day. For this reason we only measure weirdly wet conditions.

  降水 ：怪异取决于每天的总降水量。 对于降雨，这仅仅是降雨的深度，而对于雪，则指的是雪水当量 ，即当您融化当天落下的雪时将剩下的水深。 有趣的是，整个星球上很少有地方在特定的一天没有降雨。 即使在日常降雨非常普遍的地方，例如在雨季的热带地区，从统计上讲，偶尔会有干日也不奇怪。 因此，我们仅测量奇怪的潮湿条件。

还有其他可计算的天气怪异方面吗？ (Are there other weird aspects of weather that can be calculated?)

Definitely. Even if we’re limited to temperature and precipitation measurements there are many other interesting and important aspects of weather weirdness that can be calculated. Examples include heat waves (consecutive days above a given temperature), cold spells, and dry spells or droughts. We’ll roll out more of these as soon as we can.

绝对是 即使我们仅限于温度和降水测量，也可以计算出天气怪异性的许多其他有趣且重要的方面。 例子包括热浪(高于给定温度的连续几天)，寒冷季节，干旱季节或干旱。 我们将尽快推出更多此类产品。