Why investors have fallen in love with small American firms

The Russell 2000 puts in a historic performance

罗素2000指数：

罗素2000指数（英语：Russell 2000 Index）为罗素3000指数中收录市值最小的2000家（排序第1001–3000名）公司股票进行编制。罗素2000指数市值只占罗素3000指数约10%，但因被视为最能代表美国市场小型股的重要指数，备受市场和媒体关注，是罗素指数中知名度最高者。道琼斯工业平均指数、标准普尔500指数、纳斯达克100指数及罗素2000指数是美国最重要的股票指数。四个主要指数均有标准、迷你及微型期货／期权可供投资者交易。

Source: https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E7%BE%85%E7%B4%A02000%E6%8C%87%E6%95%B8

put in: 表现出

“Put in” 在这里的意思是“表现出”或“展现出”。在金融和投资的语境中，通常用来描述股票、指数或投资工具在特定时期内的表现。

举个例子：

• “Despite the economic downturn, the S&P 500 put in a strong performance last quarter, increasing by 10%.”
• “The young athlete put in an impressive performance at the championship, setting a new personal best.”

在这两个例子中，“put in” 用来描述 S&P 500 和年轻运动员在特定时期内的表现如何。

所以，“The Russell 2000 puts in a historic performance” 意思是 “罗素2000指数表现出历史性的表现”。这表示罗素2000指数在某一段时期内取得了非常出色或异常显著的成绩。

原文：

Believe it OR not, corporate America still makes room for the little guy.

Around half of working Americans are employed by a firm with less than

500 workers. Nine in ten banks are community institutions that hold less

than $10bn in assets. This rather parochial picture, however, is not reflected

in the country’s stockmarket, where the falling number of public companies

and extreme concentration of value are a concern. Among America’s 3,000

largest public firms, the biggest 1,000 account for 95% of total value. The

next 2,000, which form the Russell 2000 index, are collectively worth less

than Apple, the world’s most valuable company

信不信由你，美国公司仍然为小公司腾出空间。大约一半的美国工人受雇于一家员工少于500人的公司。十分之九的银行是社区机构，资产不足100亿美元。然而，这种颇为狭隘的景象并没有反映在该国的股票市场上，上市公司数量的减少和价值的极度集中令人担忧。在美国3000家最大的上市公司中，最大的1000家占总价值的95%。接下来的2000家公司组成了罗素2000指数，它们的总价值低于世界上最有价值的公司苹果

学习：

parochial：美 [pəˈroʊkiəl] 目光褊狭的；地方观念的

“Parochial” 在这里的意思是“狭隘的”或“地方性的”。这个词通常用来描述对某事物的关注或兴趣范围非常狭窄，仅限于某个特定地区或社区，而缺乏对更广泛事物的理解或关注。

举个例子：

• “Her views on international politics are very parochial; she only considers how things affect her own country.”
• “The town’s parochial concerns often overshadowed more significant issues affecting the entire region.”

在这两个例子中，“parochial” 用来描述一个人或一个社区仅关注自己狭小范围内的事情，而不关心或不了解更广泛的世界或更大的问题。

所以，“This rather parochial picture, however, is not reflected in the country’s stockmarket” 意思是“这种相对狭隘的情况并没有反映在国家的股市中”。这表示尽管美国有许多小公司和社区银行，但在股票市场上，大公司的集中程度非常高，小公司的存在感相对较低。

原文：

Now the unloved miniatures of America’s stockmarket are having their day

in the sun. For most of the year, their shareholders watched the bull market

from the stands: the Russell 2000 barely budged, while the S&P 500 index of

large American firms rose by almost a fifth. Until the past week, that is,

when the Russell 2000 was hurled forward as if by both of the market’s

charging horns. The index has jumped by 9%, reaching its highest level

since the beginning of 2022. Compared with the S&P 500, which is down

slightly over the past week, its outperformance is the largest in history.

Analysts are debating whether the move is a freak incident, the beginning of

a “small-cap summer” or even a “great rotation” from big stocks to small

ones

现在，不受欢迎的美国股票市场的小公司正迎来它们的阳光时代。在这一年的大部分时间里，他们的股东站在看台上看着牛市:罗素2000指数几乎没有变动，而美国大公司的标准普尔500指数上涨了近五分之一。直到上周，罗素2000指数仿佛被市场的两只冲锋号角一起推动般迅速上涨”。该指数已跃升9%，达到2022年初以来的最高水平。与过去一周略有下跌的标准普尔500相比，其表现是有史以来最好的。分析师们正在争论，此举是一个反常事件，是“小盘股夏天”的开始，还是从大盘股到小盘股的“大轮换”

学习：

unloved：不被喜爱的

miniature：美 [ˈmɪniətʃər] 缩影；缩图；微型画；微小模型；

shareholder：股东

budge：美 [bʌdʒ] （使）微微移动；改变主意

hurl forward：向前猛冲; 被迅速推动

“Was hurled forward” 的意思是“被迅速推动”或“被快速推向前”。这个短语通常用来描述某事物突然间经历了显著的加速或推进，就像被强力抛掷一般。

举个例子：

• “During the final lap of the race, the runner was hurled forward by a sudden burst of energy, overtaking his competitors.”
• “The company’s stock price was hurled forward after the announcement of a breakthrough product.”

在这两个例子中，“was hurled forward” 用来描述一个跑步者在比赛的最后一圈突然加速，超过了竞争对手，或者公司股价在宣布突破性产品后迅速上涨。

在你的句子中，“the Russell 2000 was hurled forward as if by both of the market’s charging horns” 意思是“罗素2000指数仿佛被市场的两只冲锋号角一起推动般迅速上涨”。这表示这个指数在短时间内经历了显著的增长。

horns：美 [hɔːrnz] 喇叭；角；号角；（horn的复数）

freak：美 [friːk] 异常现象；怪事；反常事件

charging horn: 冲锋号角

“Charging horns” 在这里是一个比喻，指的是市场的力量或动力，就像公牛的角在冲锋时推动一样。这个比喻来源于“牛市”（bull market），即股票市场处于上升趋势中，就像一头冲锋的公牛用它的角向前推进一样。因此，“charging horns” 表示强大的推动力或驱动力。

解释：

• 在文中，“the Russell 2000 was hurled forward as if by both of the market’s charging horns” 意味着罗素2000指数就像被市场的巨大推动力迅速推动一样，经历了显著的增长。

举个例子：

• “The small startup felt like it was being driven forward by the charging horns of the booming tech industry.”
• “The sudden influx of investment hurled the company forward, as if by the charging horns of eager investors.”

在这些例子中，“charging horns” 描述的是强大的推动力或力量，这种力量使某个事物迅速前进或增长。

原文：

It is never wise to entirely rule out freak one-offs, especially when it comes

to moves of such magnitude. And there remains plenty that could go wrong

for the tiddlers. Max Grinacoff at UBS says that there is “rampant” call option

activity relating to the Russell 2000 index, which he sees as investors

“renting upside” rather than going all in. There have also been previous false

dawns. Before Christmas small caps rallied, fuelled by expectations of

imminent interest-rate cuts, only for things to calm when it became clear

cuts were a way off. Similarly, this time round, any data indicating that

interest rates may be slower to return to Earth than investors now anticipate

could quickly ruin the doveish mood.

完全排除反常的一次性行为从来都不是明智之举，尤其是在涉及如此巨大的波动时。对于这些小鱼来说，还有很多可能出错的地方。瑞银(UBS)的马克斯格里纳科夫(Max Grinacoff)表示，与罗素2000指数(Russell 2000 index)相关的看涨期权活动“猖獗”，他认为这是投资者“租用上涨空间”，而不是全部买入。以前也有过虚假的曙光。圣诞节前，在即将降息的预期推动下，小型股出现反弹，但当降息变得明显遥遥无期时，市场才平静下来。同样，这次如果有任何数据表明利率可能比投资者目前预期的更慢回归正常水平，可能会迅速破坏目前的乐观情绪。

学习：

one-offs：一次性事物；独一无二的人；（one-off的复数）

tiddler：美 [ˈtɪdlər] 小鱼；小娃娃；异常小的人

rampant：泛滥的；猖獗的；肆虐的；

call option：看涨期权

Rally：反弹（金融领域）

rally：在金融和投资领域中，“rally”指的是市场或资产价格在一段时间内显著上升或反弹。

举个例子：

• “After a period of decline, the stock market rallied, with major indices gaining several percentage points in a single day.”
• “The company’s shares rallied following the announcement of better-than-expected quarterly earnings.”

imminent：即将发生的；

a way off：一段距离

doveish：鸽派的

鸽派（doveish）：在经济和金融政策讨论中，“鸽派”指的是倾向于支持低利率和宽松货币政策的立场。鸽派通常关注促进经济增长和就业，即使这可能导致通货膨胀上升。鸽派的对立面是“鹰派”（hawkish），后者更关注控制通货膨胀，即使这可能导致经济增长放缓。

举个例子：

• “The central bank’s recent statements have been quite doveish, signaling a preference for keeping interest rates low to support economic growth.”
• “Investors are feeling optimistic due to the doveish comments from policymakers, suggesting that interest rates will remain low for the foreseeable future.”

return to Earth：在这里，“return to Earth”指的是利率恢复到较低的正常水平。这个比喻表明目前的利率较高，需要“回到”更低的状态。

原文：

That said, the case for America’s small caps has been growing for months.

Compared with the achingly high valuations of the country’s biggest

companies, the miniatures look like a rare and ever-more attractive bargain.

Lori Calvasina of Royal Bank of Canada says that recent revisions to

earnings estimates indicate the biggest American firms are no longer the sole

object of analysts’ enthusiasm. On top of this, the two events that have

dominated markets during the past week—an inflation surprise and an

attempted presidential assassination—have both bolstered the case for

buying small.

也就是说，美国小型股的情况几个月来一直在增长。与该国最大的公司相当高的估值相比，小公司看起来像是一种罕见的、越来越有吸引力的交易。加拿大皇家银行的Lori Calvasina说，最近对收益预测的修正表明美国最大的公司不再是分析师们唯一热衷的对象。除此之外，过去一周主导市场的两个事件——一个意外的通胀和一次未遂的——都支持了买入小股的理由。

学习：

achingly：美 ['eɪkɪŋlɪ] 极其；十分；

miniatures：上文有解释，指小公司

revision：修订；

原文：

On July 11th data showed that American consumer-price inflation dropped

to 3% in the year to June, coming in below expectations. Interest-rate cuts

by the Federal Reserve, which typically benefit small stocks more than big

ones, now look increasingly likely. Not only are the fortunes of the Russell

2000 more closely tied to the health of America’s domestic economy, lower

interest rates would also provide their balance-sheets with welcome relief.

According to Bank of America, around 40% of borrowing by firms in the

index is taken on at a floating rate. A lower cost of capital, combined with

attractive valuations, could also mean more Russell 2000 firms become

takeover targets. Even if not all investors are fully convinced about owning

small caps, private-equity firms desperate to strike deals and bigger

companies looking for growth might be.

7月11日的数据显示，截至今年6月，美国消费者价格通胀率降至3%，低于预期。美联储降息的可能性越来越大，通常对小型股的好处大于大型股。不仅罗素2000指数的命运与美国国内经济的健康状况更加紧密地联系在一起，更低的利率也会给他们的资产负债表带来可喜的缓解。根据美国银行的数据，该指数中公司大约40%的借款是以浮动利率进行的。较低的资本成本，加上诱人的估值，也可能意味着更多罗素2000指数成份股公司成为收购目标。即使不是所有的投资者都完全相信持有小盘股，急于达成交易的私募股权公司和寻求增长的大公司可能会相信。

学习：

balance-sheets：资产负债表

welcome relief：及时救助；可喜的缓解

strike deals：达成交易

原文：

Two days later Donald Trump survived an assassination attempt at a rally in

Pennsylvania, surely increasing his chances of winning re-election in

November. Any investor yet to place their “Trump trade” is now scrambling

to do so. For every one that sees fiscal indiscipline pushing up companies’

cost of capital and tariffs zapping profits, another predicts that corporate tax

cuts and deregulation will boost the stockmarket. Investing in small firms

appears to be a reasonable way to prepare for an administration that claims

to be pro-business but despises the dominance of the largest technology

firms. Indeed, the Russell 2000, with its domestic focus, could be a safe

haven from Mr Trump’s blunders abroad, while benefiting from reshoring

efforts and lower corporate tax at home. J.D. Vance, whom Mr Trump has

selected as the Republican nominee for the vice-presidency, even once

helped invest a venture-capital fund called “Rise of the Rest”. Small really

could be beautiful for investors. ■

两天后，唐纳德·特朗普在宾夕法尼亚州的一次集会上幸免于一场assassination，这无疑增加了他在十一月连任的机会。任何还未进行“特朗普交易”的投资者现在都在争先恐后地行动。对于那些认为财政失衡会推高企业资本成本和关税削减利润的投资者，每一个人都预测公司税减免和放松监管将会推动股市上涨。投资小公司似乎是为一个声称亲商但厌恶最大科技公司主导地位的政府做好准备的合理方式。实际上，罗素2000指数由于其国内市场的集中性，可能会成为特朗普在海外失误中的避风港，同时受益于国内的产业回流努力和较低的公司税。J.D. 万斯，特朗普选择的副总统候选人，甚至曾经帮助投资一个名为“Rest of the Rest”的风险投资基金。对投资者来说，小型股真的可能是美好的。■

学习：

scramble：争夺；争抢；

zapping：攻击；（zap的现在分词形式）迅速减少

tariffs zapping profits：关税“攻击”利润，意思是关税让利润降低

这里的“zap” 是指“迅速减少”或“严重削减”的意思。在这个上下文中，它表示关税的实施将大幅度减少企业的利润。

例如，如果一个国家对进口商品征收高额关税，这些额外的成本可能会被转嫁到消费者身上，从而减少商品的销售量和企业的利润。关税的增加可以迅速削减出口企业的利润，因为他们要么不得不承担额外的成本，要么因为价格上涨而失去竞争力。

despise：美 [dɪˈspaɪz] 轻视；蔑视；看不起；厌恶

save haven：避风港

blunders：愚蠢的错误；大错；（blunder的复数）

shore：岸；岸边；滨；海岸；

reshoring：回游

fiscal indiscipline：财政失衡

“Fiscal indiscipline” 是指政府在财政政策上的不负责任行为，包括超支、增加债务和缺乏有效的预算控制。这种行为可能会导致政府的财政状况恶化，增加通货膨胀风险，推高利率，从而对经济造成负面影响。例如，政府持续大幅度增加支出而不相应地增加收入来源，就会被认为是财政失衡。

后记

2024年7月25日晚于上海。